Here is the Best estimate of which Countries that Russia will INVADE next if Ukraine ever Falls!

While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, here’s a potential order of countries that could have faced Russian aggression after a Ukrainian surrender:

1. Former Soviet Republics:

• Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania): These countries share borders with Russia and have a significant Russian population. Their aspirations to join NATO would be seen as a direct threat by Russia.
• Georgia: Russia has already fought a war with Georgia in 2008 and maintains troops in the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia’s desire to join NATO and the EU would likely prompt further Russian intervention.
• Moldova: This country has a long history of Russian influence and a pro-Russian separatist region in Transnistria. A Ukrainian surrender could embolden Russia to act militarily in Moldova.

2. Central and Eastern European countries:

• Poland: As a major NATO member and a staunch critic of Russia, Poland would be a prime target. Its strategic location and large population would make it a significant prize for Russia.
• Romania: This country borders both Ukraine and Moldova and has a sizable Hungarian minority. Russia could exploit tensions between Romania and Hungary to its advantage.
• Bulgaria: This country has traditionally close ties to Russia but is also a member of NATO and the EU. Russia could attempt to destabilize Bulgaria through political and economic pressure.

3. Other countries with historical ties to Russia:

• Finland: Finland has a long and complex history with Russia, including a war in 1939-40. Its neutrality policy could be tested if Russia becomes more aggressive.
• Kazakhstan: This Central Asian country has the largest land border with Russia and a significant Russian minority. Russia could intervene in Kazakhstan if it feels its influence is waning.
• Mongolia: This country shares a long border with Russia and is economically dependent on it. Russia could exert pressure on Mongolia to limit its ties with the West.

Additional factors:

• The strength of the international response: A strong and united response from the international community, particularly the US and NATO, would deter Russia from further aggression.
• The internal situation in Russia: The domestic political and economic situation in Russia could play a role in determining its foreign policy.
• Unforeseen events: Unforeseen events, such as a coup or the death of a leader, could also have a significant impact on Russia’s behavior.

It’s important to note that this is just a speculative scenario and the actual sequence of events could be different. However, it highlights the potential risks of a Ukrainian surrender and the need for the international community to remain vigilant and prepared to deter further Russian aggression.

Specifying the exact country where NATO would intervene is difficult due to the unpredictable nature of international relations and the complex political landscape. However, based on existing alliances and historical context, some countries are more likely to trigger a NATO intervention than others.

Countries with a higher likelihood of NATO intervention:

• Any NATO member country: Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulates that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Therefore, NATO is obligated to intervene militarily if any member country is attacked. This includes countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia, which border Russia and have expressed concerns about Russian aggression.
• Ukraine: While not a member of NATO, Ukraine has received significant military and financial support from the alliance since the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine. Although direct military intervention by NATO is currently unlikely, an escalation of the conflict or a direct attack on Ukrainian territory could trigger further action.
• Other former Soviet republics: Georgia and Moldova, both of which have experienced Russian intervention in the past, could also be potential targets. Their aspirations to join NATO and the EU are seen as a threat by Russia, and their proximity to Russian borders makes them vulnerable.

Countries with a lower likelihood of NATO intervention:

• Neutral countries: Finland and Sweden, despite their close proximity to Russia, have traditionally maintained a policy of neutrality. While they have recently strengthened their ties with NATO, their neutrality status may discourage direct intervention in the event of a conflict.
• Central Asian countries: While some Central Asian countries have historical ties to Russia, their strategic importance to the West is relatively lower compared to Eastern Europe. Additionally, their distance from NATO bases and potential logistical challenges may make direct intervention less likely.

Factors influencing NATO’s decision:

• Severity of the threat: The severity and nature of the threat posed to a country will play a crucial role in determining NATO’s response. A direct attack on a member country would likely elicit a more forceful response than a low-level conflict in a non-member state.
• International consensus: NATO is a consensus-based organization, and any intervention requires the approval of all member states. Therefore, the strength of international condemnation and support for intervention will be a major factor in decision-making.
• Domestic political considerations: Each NATO member state has its own domestic political landscape and public opinion towards military intervention. These internal dynamics will influence the government’s stance on intervention, making unanimous agreement a potential challenge.

Conclusion:

Predicting the exact location of a potential NATO intervention is impossible. However, considering existing alliances, historical context, and potential threats, countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Ukraine are more likely to trigger a NATO response compared to neutral or geographically distant countries. Ultimately, the decision to intervene will depend on the specific circumstances, international consensus, and the political will of individual member states.