Mondays 50-70% Drop in the Stock Market

A worse Repeat of 2020-

Historical Context of 50-70% Stock Market Drops:

Historically, stock market drops of 50-70% are associated with the most severe economic crises and periods of extreme uncertainty:

  • The Great Depression (1929-1932): This remains the most significant stock market crash in U.S. history, with the market losing around 89% of its value from its peak in 1929 to its trough in 1932. This was triggered by a confluence of factors, including speculative bubbles, a flawed monetary policy, and a severe economic contraction.
  • Other Significant Bear Markets: While other bear markets have been substantial (e.g., the dot-com bust, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009), they did not reach the 50-70% decline range for the major indices. The “Lost Decade” which included both the dot-com bust and the 2008 financial crisis resulted in a total stock market loss of 54%.

How a “No Confidence” Scenario Could Potentially Lead to a Major Market Drop:

If the current situation arises in the U.S. that was perceived by investors as a profound crisis of confidence in the government and the stability of the economic and political system, it could theoretically lead to a very sharp market decline. This would likely involve:

  • Extreme Uncertainty: Investors would become highly uncertain about the future direction of economic policy, regulation, and the overall stability of the nation.
  • Capital Flight: Both domestic and international investors might seek to move their capital to perceived safer havens.
  • Economic Paralysis: A severe political crisis could lead to a standstill in government decision-making, hindering any potential policy responses to economic challenges.
  • Erosion of Business Confidence: Businesses would likely become hesitant to invest and expand in an environment of extreme uncertainty.

However, it’s crucial to consider the following:

  • The Threshold for Such a Drop is Very High: A 50-70% market drop is not a typical reaction to political events. It usually signifies a deep and systemic economic crisis.
  • U.S. Institutions: The U.S. has strong institutions, including an independent Federal Reserve, which would likely attempt to intervene to stabilize markets in a crisis.
  • Global Interconnectedness: A crisis of this magnitude in the U.S. would have severe global repercussions, and international cooperation might be sought to mitigate the damage.

Regarding the Current Tariff Situation and “No Confidence”:

While the current tariffs are causing significant market concern and a downward trend, it is not yet clear if this situation will escalate to a level that triggers a full-blown “no confidence” crisis of the type that could lead to a 50-70% market drop. Such a drop would likely require a much more profound and destabilizing political or economic event beyond the implementation of tariffs, even widespread ones.

In conclusion, while a severe crisis of confidence in the U.S. government could theoretically contribute to a massive stock market decline, it would likely be from the current tariff situation alone. Historically, drops of 50-70% have been linked to deep and systemic economic collapses and No Confidence o.o o.oor a great Loss of Confidence in its Leader or Governing Cabinet. And/Or a sudden Loss of Confidence in America by Foreign Trade Partners.

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