Trump’s Approval could drop to 9% by January 2026

To predict Donald Trump’s approval rating for the remainder of 2025, we can establish a scenario based on significant decline over the year from a starting approval rating of 40%. This projection will take into account various factors that commonly influence public approval, such as economic performance, policy decisions, and national events.

  1. Current Approval Rating: 40%
  2. Trend Analysis: We will assume a notable decline in approval ratings throughout the year, leading to a substantial drop.

Here’s a hypothetical breakdown of the approval ratings for each quarter in 2025:

  • First Quarter (Jan – Mar): Anticipating a recovery or a bounce-back due to positive policies or events, the approval rating could rise to approximately 45% by the end of March.
  • Second Quarter (Apr – Jun): Following the first quarter’s improvement, if challenges persist, the approval rating might decline significantly to about 32% by the end of June.
  • Third Quarter (Jul – Sep): A continued decline driven by ongoing issues or negative events could push the rating down further to around 23% by the end of September.
  • Fourth Quarter (Oct – Dec): If the downward trend continues, the approval rating could drop sharply to approximately 11% by year’s end.
  • January 2026: Continuing this trend, the approval rating could stabilize around 9%.

Predicted Approval Ratings for Each Quarter in 2025:

  • Q1 (Jan – Mar): 45% end of March
  • Q2 (Apr – Jun): 32%
  • Q3 (Jul – Sep): 23%
  • Q4 (Oct – Dec): 11%
  • January 2026: 9%

This projection illustrates a dramatic decline throughout the year. Keep in mind that approval ratings are heavily influenced by a range of unpredictable factors, so these estimates are hypothetical and should not be viewed as definitive predictions.