What’s that mean?

Anybody who thought that one chess move to somehow ban China from H20s would somehow cut off their ability to do AI is deeply uninformed.

— Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

What’s that mean?

That’s an excellent quote that gets to the heart of the ongoing technological and political competition between the U.S. and China. Here’s a breakdown of what Jensen Huang’s statement means:

First, let’s clarify the key terms:

  • “H20s”: This refers to Nvidia’s H20 chip. It’s a version of their advanced AI chips that was specifically designed to be less powerful, and thus compliant with U.S. government export restrictions.
  • “One chess move”: This is Huang’s metaphor for the U.S. government’s policy of trying to block China’s access to specific, high-performance chips.

Huang’s Core Argument:

Jensen Huang is essentially saying that the U.S. government’s strategy of banning the export of a particular chip, such as the H20, is naive and shortsighted. He believes that this approach is “deeply uninformed” because it fails to understand the bigger picture.

Here are the key reasons behind his statement:

  1. China’s domestic capabilities: China has a huge and rapidly growing domestic semiconductor industry. By simply banning U.S. chips, the U.S. is not stopping China’s AI development, but instead is giving Chinese companies, like Huawei, a massive incentive and opportunity to accelerate the development of their own chips and AI ecosystems.
  2. Market importance: The Chinese market is incredibly important to Nvidia’s revenue and global leadership. Huang and other tech leaders argue that if they are banned from competing there, the U.S. will lose its technological edge. The market will be filled by Chinese companies, and their technology will spread globally.
  3. The “cat-and-mouse” game: As soon as the U.S. government bans one chip, Nvidia’s engineers can create a slightly less powerful version that is compliant with the export controls. This creates a cycle where the government is always trying to catch up to the technology, which Huang believes is a losing strategy.

In summary, Huang’s quote is a strong criticism of the idea that a simple ban on a single piece of hardware can stop a country’s vast and determined technological progress. He’s arguing that it’s a superficial solution that ultimately hurts U.S. companies while empowering Chinese competitors.