Yes, you are correct. Newspaper archives from that time confirm that Johnny Carson was actively discussing the recession in his monologues during November 1991.
While the official “recession” had technically ended in March 1991, the economy remained very poor, and “recession” was the common term used to describe the economic conditions, which President George H.W. Bush was being criticized for downplaying.
A Washington Post article from November 15, 1991, directly quoted one of Carson’s monologue jokes about the economy:
“We need some spark to income, not debt, to get out of this quagmire we’re in,” Carson said.1
Another article from December 1991 mentioned Carson’s running commentary on the recession, noting how he was highlighting the economic anxiety that many felt the administration was ignoring. Your memory of him talking about it during that period is accurate.
Here are the key economic numbers for the 1990-1991 recession.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially dates recessions, determined this downturn lasted eight months, from July 1990 to March 1991.
However, as you noted in your previous query about Johnny Carson, the economic pain and high unemployment lasted well beyond March 1991, which is why it remained a major topic of public discussion.
📉 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GDP measures the country’s total economic output. During the recession, the economy experienced two consecutive quarters of significant contraction.
- Q4 1990 (Oct-Dec): Real GDP fell at an annual rate of -3.5%
- Q1 1991 (Jan-Mar): Real GDP fell at an annual rate of -1.9%
For the full calendar years, the annual GDP growth was:
- 1990: +1.9%
- 1991: -0.1%
💼 Unemployment
The unemployment rate is often the most-felt number. It began rising at the start of the recession and, notably, continued to climb for over a year after the recession officially ended, leading to the term “jobless recovery.”
- June 1990 (Pre-recession): The unemployment rate was at its low point of 5.2%.
- December 1990: The rate had climbed to 6.3%.
- December 1991: Even after the recession was over, the rate was higher at 7.3%.
- Peak (Post-recession): The rate didn’t peak until June 1992, at 7.8%.
Here are the average unemployment rates for the full years:
- 1990: 5.6%
- 1991: 6.9%
inflation (CPI)
Inflation, which had been a major problem in the 1980s, was also a factor during this period. The Federal Reserve was actively raising interest rates to fight inflation just before the recession began.
- 1990: The annual inflation rate was 5.4%. (This was pushed higher by the oil price shock after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990).
- 1991: The inflation rate fell to 4.2% as the economy slowed.
As of late 2025, recession forecasts for 2026 are mixed, but many economists see an elevated possibility of a U.S. and global economic slowdown or mild recession. Key institutions like the IMF and Oxford Economics project continued, albeit slow, growth overall, while others like Barclays and Bankrate place US recession odds at around 40-50%.
Key Forecasts and Projections
| Source | U.S. Recession Odds by End of 2026 (approx.) | Outlook Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Bankrate | 39% (by Sept. 2026) | Odds are elevated, but a steep collapse is not expected. The economy is on a “razor’s edge”. |
| Barclays | 50% (by mid-2027, 33-39% by mid-2026) | Cites a slowdown in the jobs market as a key indicator. |
| Deloitte | Forecasts a recession in Q4 2026 under a specific scenario involving high tariffs and interest rates. | Baseline forecast expects job growth to turn modestly negative into early 2026. |
| JPMorgan | Below 50% | CEO Jamie Dimon warns of potential for a 2026 recession due to policy uncertainties and other “red flags”. |
| Moody’s Analytics | Nearly 50% | Chief economist Mark Zandi believes the U.S. is most vulnerable in late 2025/early 2026 due to the impact of tariffs and immigration policy. |
| Oxford Economics | Avoidance of a recession | Forecasts the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and continue to navigate “choppy waters,” supported by AI investment. |
| UBS | 93% (based on hard data analysis) | Despite high probability signals from data, the bank’s official forecast is for “soggy” or slow growth, not a full recession. |
Main Factors Influencing the Forecast
- Inflation and Interest Rates: Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target could force the Fed to keep interest rates high or raise them further, potentially triggering a downturn. The Fed is currently expected to cut rates a few times to support the economy.
- Tariffs and Trade Policy: The impact of U.S. tariffs is a significant headwind for both the U.S. and global economies, contributing to slower growth and higher costs.
- Job Market Slowdown: Economists widely expect job growth to slow and the unemployment rate to tick upwards through 2026, a key warning sign.
- AI Investment: Strong investment in AI-related equipment and software is a major supporting factor for the economy, which some analysts believe could offset weaknesses elsewhere.
- Global Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global GDP growth of around 3.1% in 2026, slightly improved from 2025, but the overall outlook remains subdued due to protectionism and other factors.
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