The opinion piece by former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev argues that while the proposed Trump administration peace plan heavily favors Russia, Vladimir Putin will ultimately reject it because it fails to grant him the absolute victory and global status he seeks.¹

Here is a summary of Bondarev’s main points regarding the plan and why he believes Putin will not accept it:

🇷🇺 Provisions That Benefit Russia (But Are Insufficient for Putin)

• Undermining Ukrainian Sovereignty: The plan imposes numerous restrictions on Ukraine, such as prohibiting it from joining NATO and limiting its military size to 600,000 troops, which Bondarev sees as “effectively punishing the victim for resisting the aggressor.”²
• Symbol of U.S. Capitulation: The very existence of such a U.S. initiative, offering significant concessions, is viewed by Putin as a signal that Washington is “tired, frightened and eager to avoid involvement,” proving his narrative of U.S. impotence and surrender.³
• Focus on Russia-NATO Dialogue: Putin will seize on the provision for “Russia-NATO dialogue” to revive his 2021 ultimatum, which demanded NATO retreat to its 1997 borders.⁴ The Kremlin views Ukraine as a secondary issue to be resolved within a broader U.S.-Russia-NATO negotiation over the post-Cold War security architecture.⁵

---

❌ Reasons Putin Will Reject the Plan

Bondarev argues that the plan contains several “unacceptable” elements that violate Putin’s goal of achieving a total victory and elevated status:⁶

1. Subordination to Trump’s Oversight:
   • The plan calls for a “Peace Council” led by President Donald Trump to oversee compliance.⁷
   • Putin’s View: This is “utterly unacceptable” as it places Trump in a position of supervising and assessing Putin’s actions.⁸ Putin is waging the war to prove he has an equal or primary right to shape global decisions and will not accept being overseen by anyone.⁹
2. Use of Frozen Russian Assets:
   • The plan directs at least $100 billion of Russia’s frozen assets toward Ukraine’s reconstruction under U.S. supervision.¹⁰
   • Putin’s View: It is “difficult to imagine” Putin welcoming the idea of financing the rebuilding of a country he devastated, and especially doing so under American authority.¹¹
3. Security Guarantees for Ukraine:
   • The plan includes security guarantees for Ukraine, effectively mirroring NATO’s mutual defense commitments, treating a new attack as an attack on the “transatlantic community.”¹²
   • Putin’s View: Any form of U.S. or NATO presence or credible security guarantee in Ukraine after the war is “categorically unacceptable.”¹³ His primary goal is to reduce Ukraine to a state of strategic subordination, ensuring it can never act independently or possess instruments capable of deterring future Russian aggression.¹⁴ Moscow would demand an explicit veto over any guarantees.

❓ Conclusion

Bondarev concludes that the plan is “effectively dead on arrival” because:

• Russia will reject it as “insufficient and incompatible with its vision of total victory,” which is unconditional surrender, not a mediated compromise or subordination to Trump’s oversight.¹⁵
• Ukraine will also reject its terms but will likely attempt to revise it while maintaining the appearance that it remains a Trump initiative.¹⁶

9