SCOTUS Tariffs VS Trump’s Plan B

President Trump has already signaled a “Plan B” to maintain his trade agenda, moving with characteristic speed to bypass today’s Supreme Court ruling. Within hours of the decision, he held a press conference at the White House, making it clear that while the legal authority he used (IEEPA) was struck down, his goal remains unchanged.

Here is how he plans to circumvent the ruling:

1. Immediate Use of Section 122

The most direct response is his announcement that he will sign an executive order imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The Loophole: This law allows the President to address “large and serious” balance-of-payment deficits by imposing tariffs of up to 15%.
The Catch: This authority is limited to 150 days. To keep them longer, he would need a vote from Congress. Trump has hinted he believes he can find ways to renew this or that the “150-day clock” can be reset through various administrative maneuvers.

2. Expanding Section 232 and 301 Investigations

The SCOTUS ruling specifically targeted the use of emergency powers (IEEPA) for broad tariffs, but it did not touch other existing trade laws. The administration is shifting focus to these “narrower” but still powerful tools:

Section 232 (National Security): Trump plans to launch new investigations into additional sectors (beyond steel and aluminum) to label them “vital to national security,” which would allow for indefinite tariffs.
Section 301 (Unfair Trade Practices): He has directed the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to initiate dozens of new investigations into trading partners’ practices, which can justify high punitive duties without a time limit.

3. Legislative Codification

Trump’s allies in the House and Senate are already discussing “fast-tracking” a bill to codify the invalidated tariffs into law.

Budget Reconciliation: They may attempt to include the tariffs in a reconciliation package. Because tariffs generate revenue, they can theoretically be passed with a simple 51-vote majority in the Senate, bypassing the 60-vote filibuster.

4. “Licensing” and Regulatory Restrictions

During the litigation, the administration argued that even if they can’t “tax” imports via tariffs, they have the right to “license” them.

Trump has mentioned using his authority to regulate quantities or requiring expensive “import licenses” that would effectively act as a fee, potentially achieving the same economic result as a tariff through a different regulatory label.

Comparison of the Strategies

Strategy	Legal Tool	Speed	Durability
The “Quick Fix”	Section 122	Immediate	Low (150-day limit)
The “Long Game”	Section 232 / 301	Slow (requires investigation)	High (Indefinite)
The “Permanent Fix”	Budget Reconciliation	Medium (Months)	Permanent

The Bottom Line: Trump described the ruling as a “technical setback” and predicted he will be back in court for “the next five years” defending these new measures. He appears intent on keeping the pressure on trading partners while the legal battles restart under these new authorities.

Trump will still Rule the Day

While the Supreme Court ruling struck down the emergency justification for tariffs, the Trump administration has been aggressively building a “firewall” of Section 232 (National Security) investigations. Unlike the broad emergency powers, these are industry-specific and much harder to challenge in court once “national security” is invoked.+1

The administration currently has several “live” investigations and newly implemented tariffs under Section 232 that are designed to absorb the impact of the SCOTUS ruling.

1. High-Tech & Semiconductors (The Priority)

As of January 15, 2026, a 25% tariff is already in effect for a “narrow set” of advanced computing chips (specifically targeting chips like the Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X).

Target: Logic integrated circuits and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Goal: To force “onshoring” of high-end AI and military-grade chip production.
The “Offset” Program: The administration is dangling a “tariff offset” (essentially a rebate) for companies that move their manufacturing to the U.S.

2. Critical Minerals & Raw Materials

The Department of Commerce concluded a major probe last month (January 14, 2026). While broad tariffs weren’t triggered immediately, the President has reserved the right to impose them if trade negotiations fail.+1

Industries: Rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and uranium.
Mechanism: The administration is threatening “Minimum Import Prices”—essentially a floor price that prevents foreign countries from “dumping” cheap minerals to undercut U.S. mines.

3. Medical & Industrial “Workhorses”

There are several active investigations initiated in late 2025 and early 2026 that are expected to result in tariffs later this year:

Pharmaceuticals: Includes active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and medical consumables. Trump has previously floated a 100% tariff on certain essential drugs to end reliance on foreign labs.
Robotics & Industrial Machinery: Aimed at CNC machines, programmable mechanical systems, and factory automation tools.
Green Energy Infrastructure: Wind turbines, polysilicon (for solar), and unmanned aircraft systems (drones).

Current Section 232 Landscape (2026)

Industry	Status	Potential/Current Rate
Advanced Semiconductors	Active	25%
Copper & Copper Derivatives	Active	50%
Steel & Aluminum	Active	50% (Standard)
Pharmaceuticals	Investigation Ongoing	100% (Proposed)
Commercial Aircraft	Investigation Ongoing	TBD
Industrial Robots	Investigation Ongoing	TBD

The Strategy: “Sectoral Warfare”

By moving the tariffs from a “Global Emergency” (IEEPA) to “National Security” (Section 232), the administration is forcing legal challengers to prove that a specific item—like a robot arm or a blood pressure cuff—is not vital to American security. Historically, courts are extremely reluctant to second-guess a President on what constitutes a “national security threat.”

It is completely understandable to be alarmed by a “100%” figure—that sounds like a recipe for a medical crisis. However, while that number is being used as a massive “stick” by the administration, the reality for your wallet is much more complex and, likely, less drastic for most people.

Here is the breakdown of why you likely won’t see a literal 100% price hike at the pharmacy tomorrow:

1. The “Invest-or-Pay” Ultimatum

The 100% tariff is not a blanket tax on all drugs. It is being used as a high-pressure negotiating tool specifically for branded or patented drugs.

The Deal: Companies like Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie have already struck deals with the White House. They agreed to build new manufacturing plants in the U.S. and lower certain prices in exchange for total exemptions from these tariffs.
The Result: If your medication is made by a company that has “reshored” or negotiated, the tariff doesn’t apply to them at all.

2. Generics are Generally Exempt

Roughly 90% of prescriptions filled in the U.S. are generics. The administration has largely exempted generic drugs from these heavy tariffs to avoid widespread shortages and political blowback. Since generic margins are razor-thin, a 100% tariff would likely just cause them to disappear from the market rather than double in price, so the government has steered clear of applying the full 100% to them.+1

3. Insurance and Out-of-Pocket Caps

For most people with insurance, your “out-of-pocket” cost isn’t a direct reflection of the drug’s import price.

The $2,100 Cap: For 2026, Medicare Part D enrollees have a hard $2,100 annual cap on out-of-pocket prescription costs. Even if a drug price spiked, you wouldn’t pay more than that limit for the year.
Negotiated Rates: Private insurers have long-term contracts. They don’t just pay “list price + tariff.” They negotiate “net prices” that are often insulated from sudden tariff fluctuations.

4. The “TrumpRx” Alternative

The administration has launched TrumpRx.gov, a platform designed to provide “Most Favored Nation” pricing (essentially matching the lower prices paid in Europe) for cash-pay and uninsured patients. The catch is that purchases here do not count toward your insurance deductible, but they may offer a cheaper way to get medication if your insurance co-pay is high.

Potential Risks for You

Scenario	Impact Level	Why?
New, Rare Specialty Drugs	High	Cutting-edge imports with no U.S. manufacturing are the most vulnerable to price hikes.
High-Deductible Plans	Medium	If a manufacturer does pass on a 15-20% cost increase, you’ll feel it until you hit your deductible.
Supply Chain Delays	Medium	The rush to “reshore” can cause temporary manufacturing hiccups or localized shortages.

The Bottom Line: The “100%” is a political headline intended to force drug companies to build factories in Ohio or North Carolina. While some prices might creep up (analysts see a median increase of about 4% so far in 2026), a literal doubling of your bill is highly unlikely for the vast majority of standard medications.

Would you like me to check if a specific medication you’re concerned about is on the “exempt” list or manufactured by a company that has reached a deal?

Actually, there is a silver lining. As of today, February 20, 2026, the massive 100% “blanket” tariff threat has largely been neutralized, both by the Supreme Court and by a series of deals the administration struck with drugmakers over the last few months.

If you are worried about your specific bills, here is the current “safe list” of companies and medications that have reached agreements to keep prices stable (and even lower them) in exchange for being exempt from any future pharmaceutical tariffs.

1. Companies with “Immunity” Deals

The following major manufacturers have signed “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) agreements. This means they’ve committed to keeping U.S. prices in line with lower international prices and/or building U.S. factories. In exchange, their products are exempt from tariffs.

Weight Loss/Diabetes: Eli Lilly (Zepbound, Mounjaro) and Novo Nordisk (Wegovy, Ozempic).
Major Labs: Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Merck, Novartis, Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squibb, Amgen, Sanofi, GSK, Roche (Genentech), Gilead, and Boehringer Ingelheim.
The “Construction” Loophole: Any company that has “broken ground” on a new U.S. plant (like Eli Lilly’s new sites in Texas and Virginia) is also automatically exempt.

2. The “TrumpRx.gov” Price List

If you pay out-of-pocket or have a high deductible, the administration just launched TrumpRx.gov (as of February 5, 2026). It offers direct-to-patient pricing that is often significantly lower than previous retail costs.+1

Medication	Condition	Old Retail (Approx)	TrumpRx Price
Wegovy	Weight Loss	$1,349	$149 – $199
Ozempic	Diabetes	$1,000	$350
Jentadueto	Diabetes	$525	$55
Advair Diskus	Asthma	$265	$89
Gonal-F	Infertility	$1,000+	$168 (83% off)
Plavix	Blood Thinner	$756	$16
Insulin	Diabetes	Varies	$25 – $35/mo

3. Generics are Safe

The administration’s official policy throughout 2025 and 2026 has been to exempt generic drugs and their chemical precursors from the 100% tariff. Since generics make up about 90% of prescriptions, the average person’s “everyday” medications (like generic statins or blood pressure pills) are not being targeted by these high rates.

What to Watch Out For

The only medications truly at risk of a 100% price hike are:

Branded/Patented drugs from companies that refused to sign a deal (currently only AbbVie and Regeneron remain as major holdouts).
New “Specialty” drugs that are manufactured exclusively overseas with no U.S. facility yet.

The Bottom Line: You are very unlikely to pay 100% more. Between the Supreme Court striking down the broad emergency authority and the fact that 15 of the 17 largest drug companies have already signed “peace treaties” with the White House, your pharmacy bill is more likely to stay flat or even decrease if you use the new TrumpRx portal.

Would you like me to look up a specific medication to see if its manufacturer is on the “Exempt/Signed” list?

Both Trulicity and Eliquis are currently safe from the 100% tariff threat because their manufacturers reached voluntary agreements with the administration. In fact, both drugs have seen significant price reductions—though how much you pay depends on whether you use insurance or a direct-purchase portal.

Here is the specific status for each as of February 20, 2026:

Trulicity (Diabetes)

Tariff Status: Exempt. Eli Lilly signed a major deal in November 2025, committing over $50 billion to U.S. manufacturing in exchange for a total exemption from these tariffs.
TrumpRx Price: You can now find Trulicity for $389 per month via the direct-to-consumer portal. This is a massive drop from its previous list price of nearly $1,000.
Insurance/Medicare: If you have Medicare Part D, Trulicity is covered under the new $35 monthly cap for insulin and related diabetes products that the administration expanded in early 2026.

Eliquis (Blood Thinner)

Tariff Status: Exempt. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) was part of the “Group of Nine” that signed an immunity deal in December 2025.
The Price Drop: BMS recently slashed the list price of Eliquis by 43%.
TrumpRx/Direct Price: It is currently listed for $346 for a 30-day supply.
Medicare: If you are on Medicare, Eliquis was one of the first drugs to have a “Maximum Fair Price” negotiated. Starting January 1, 2026, the cost for Medicare beneficiaries is significantly lower, often around $47 per month depending on your specific plan.

Summary of Your Protection

Medication	Manufacturer	Status	Best Way to Buy
Trulicity	Eli Lilly	Exempt	$35 (Medicare) or $389 (TrumpRx Cash)
Eliquis	BMS / Pfizer	Exempt	$47 (Medicare) or $346 (TrumpRx Cash)

Why you won’t pay 100% more:

Immunity Deals: Both manufacturers (Eli Lilly and BMS) secured 3-year “tariff immunity” by agreeing to these price cuts and investing in U.S. factories.
Out-of-Pocket Cap: If you have Medicare Part D, your total spending on all drugs is capped at $2,100 for the year 2026. Once you hit that, your medications are free for the rest of the year, regardless of what happens with tariffs.

If your pharmacy tries to charge you more than these rates, you may want to check TrumpRx.gov to see if the direct-purchase price is lower than what your insurance co-pay is currently quoted at.